Madison Keys vs Daria Kasatkina Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

Wojtek Kolan

Our Predictions

H2H Records Career Stats

HEAD TO HEAD
M. Keys vs D. Kasatkina

Madison Keys

USA

10

Win

Played

2

Win

Age

1.78m

Height

1.70m

C. Rank

Best Rank

Total Titles

YTD Titles

$20.8M

Career Money

$10.2M

Right-handed (two-handed backhand)

Plays

Right-handed (two-handed backhand)

Daria Kasatkina

AUS

10

Win

Played

2

Win

Age

1.78m

Height

1.70m

C. Rank

Best Rank

Total Titles

YTD Titles

$20.8M

Career Money

$10.2M

Right-handed (two-handed backhand)

Plays

Right-handed (two-handed backhand)

Head-to-head: Keys 10 - 2 Kasatkina

They have played 27 sets in total, with Madison Keys winning 22 and Daria Kasatkina winning 5. The last match between Madison Keys and Daria Kasatkina was at the Adelaide International - Adelaide, 09-01-2025, Round: QF, Surface: Hard, with Madison Keys getting the victory 6-1 6-3.

Players	Head To Head Match Wins
Keys	10
Kasatkina	2

Last 12 H2H Matches:

(QF) Adelaide International - Adelaide(01-09-25)

Stats

Madison Keys

Daria Kasatkina

(F) Rothesay International - Eastbourne(07-01-23)

Stats

Madison Keys

Daria Kasatkina

(QF) Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston(04-07-23)

Stats

Daria Kasatkina

Madison Keys

M. Keys vs D. Kasatkina H2H Profile

M. Keys	Stats	D. Kasatkina
$20,819,148	Career Prize Money	$10,172,432
64.27% (421-234)	Career Total W/L	62.83% (404-239)
0	Clay	1
1	Grass	0
9	Hard	1
14	Titles	15
10	Total H2H Matches	2
71.15% (37-15)	YTD Win/Loss	46.34% (19-22)
2	YTD Titles	0

M. Keys vs D. Kasatkina Match Preview:

Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Madison Keys has won 40.91% of points on their second serve, while Daria Kasatkina has won 35.86%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Madison Keys, in recent form, has won 49.23% of their opponent's second serve points, while Daria Kasatkina has won 54.16%. The same stats for first serve returns are 28.81% and 35.19% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
Under pressure analysis: Madison Keys has saved 55.90% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Daria Kasatkina has saved 44.39% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
Performance overview: Over the last year Madison Keys has won 71.15% of matches played (W/L 37/15), with Daria Kasatkina winning 46.34% (W/L 19/22) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
Best surface: Madison Keys has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 71% (W/L 54/22), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 50% (W/L 17/17). Daria Kasatkina has their best career surface win % on Clay, winning 71% (W/L 136/60), and worse career win % on Hard, winning 58% (W/L 184/135).
Player level: In the last year, Madison Keys has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 63.64% of matches (W/L 14/8), where as Daria Kasatkina has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 35.71% of matches (W/L 5/9). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
Direct H2H matches: They have played 12 times before with Madison Keys winning 10 times and Daria Kasatkina being victorious 2 times. They have played 27 sets in total, with Madison Keys winning 22 and Daria Kasatkina winning 5.
The last match between Madison Keys and Daria Kasatkina was at the Adelaide International - Adelaide, 09-01-2025, Round: QF, Surface: Hard, with Madison Keys getting the victory 6-1 6-3.
Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 1:25:19.
Deciding set H2H prediction: Madison Keys and Daria Kasatkina have played a deciding set 3 times, with Madison Keys winning 1 times and Daria Kasatkina 2 times. Very useful for predicting the outcome if this match goes the distance.
Head-to-Head extreme pressure situations: They have played 3 tiebreaks against each other with Madison Keys winning 2, and Daria Kasatkina 1.
Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Madison Keys has played against opponents with an average rank of 48.08 while Daria Kasatkina has played against players with an average rank of 75.29.
Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Madison Keys has won 71% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Daria Kasatkina has won 33% in all matches played on tour.
Break point conversion: In recent form, Madison Keys has converted 38.35% of breakpoint opportunities, and Daria Kasatkina has converted 41.94% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
Matchstat.com indicated that Madison Keys has 32.92 % Probability of win, Daria Kasatkina 67.08 %.

Madison Keys vs Daria Kasatkina Editorial Preview By TennisTipster88.

M. Keys vs D. Kasatkina H2H Stats Used In Our Predictions

M. Keys	Stats	D. Kasatkina
10	H2H Matches Won	2
22	Sets Won	5
153	Games Won	92
61	Aces (Total)	5
21	Total Double Faults	50
1:25:19	Average Match Time	1:25:19
65% (516/799)	1st Serve %	69% (530/772)
67% (345/516)	1st Serve Win %	55% (291/530)
47% (131/280)	2nd Serve Win %	36% (86/240)
50% (64/128)	Break Pts Won %	41% (36/88)
51% (395/772)	Return Points Win %	40% (323/799)
83% (10/12)	Best‑of‑3 Win %	17% (2/12)
33% (1/3)	Deciding Set Win %	67% (2/3)
91% (10/11)	1st Set Won, Won Match	100% (1/1)
9% (1/11)	1st Set Won, Lost Match	0% (0/1)
0% (0/1)	1st Set Lost, Won Match	9% (1/11)

Recent Performance Stats

M. Keys Recent Matches Played

OPPONENT	RESULT	SCORE	H2H
WTA Finals - Riyadh - 03-11-2025
Robin Amanda AnisimovaA. Anisimova	L	4-6 6-3 6-2	Stats
Robin Iga SwiatekI. Swiatek	L	6-1 6-2	Stats
U.S. Open - New York - 25-08-2025
R1 Renata ZarazuaR. Zarazua	L	6-7(10) 7-6(3) 7-5	Stats
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati - 04-08-2025
R4 Elena RybakinaE. Rybakina	L	6-7(3) 6-4 6-2	Stats
R3 Aoi ItoA. Ito	W	6-4 6-0	Stats

View All

D. Kasatkina Recent Matches Played

OPPONENT	RESULT	SCORE	H2H
China Open - Beijing - 22-09-2025
R2 Sonay KartalS. Kartal	L	6-3 6-0	Stats
Korea Open - Seoul - 15-09-2025
R2 Katerina SiniakovaK. Siniakova	L	7-6(2) 6-2	Stats
U.S. Open - New York - 25-08-2025
R3 Naomi OsakaN. Osaka	L	6-0 4-6 6-3	Stats
R2 Kamilla RakhimovaK. Rakhimova	W	6-2 4-6 7-5	Stats
R1 Elena Gabriela RuseE. Gabriela	W	7-5 6-1	Stats

View All

M. Keys vs D. Kasatkina Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents

M. Keys	Stats	D. Kasatkina
64.27% (421/234)	YTD Win/Loss	62.83% (404/239)
62.25% (935/567)	Sets Win/Loss	59.13% (884/611)
54.63% (7694/6389)	Games Win/Loss	53.81% (7349/6309)
64.12% (252/141)	Hard Win/Loss	57.68% (184/135)
64.47% (98/54)	Clay Win/Loss	69.39% (136/60)
50.00% (17/17)	Indoor Hard W/L	68.12% (47/22)
71.05% (54/22)	Grass Win/Loss	62.71% (37/22)
0.42	Aces Per Game	0.13
2893	Aces Total	855
0.21	Double Faults Per Game	0.34
1416	Total Double Faults	2255
1:19:25	Average Match Time	1:25:54
353.74	Average Opponent Rank	301.81
63% (25508/40424)	1st Serve %	68% (26500/39180)
69% (17495/25508)	1st Serve Win %	61% (16085/26500)
48% (7162/14899)	2nd Serve Win %	43% (5452/12676)
44% (2121/4838)	Break Points Won % (Total)	49% (2651/5407)
43% (18091/41631)	Return Points Win %	48% (18937/39864)
70.86% (124/51)	Slam W/L	61.54% (64/40)
55.77% (116/92)	Masters W/L	52.25% (93/85)
44.44% (4/5)	Cups W/L	83.33% (5/1)
66.32% (126/64)	Main Tour W/L	64.21% (174/97)
64.91% (37/20)	Challenger W/L	79.41% (54/14)
87.50% (14/2)	Futures W/L	87.50% (14/2)
65% (417/643)	Best of 3 Sets Win %	63% (397/634)
25% (1/4)	Best of 5 Sets Win %	100% (1/1)
58% (102/177)	Tiebreaks Win % (Total)	49% (56/114)
53% (104/197)	Deciding Set Win %	61% (134/218)
87% (426/369)	1st Set Won, Won Match	91% (360/327)
13% (426/56)	1st Set Won, Lost Match	9% (360/32)
22% (229/51)	1st Set Lost, Won Match	27% (282/75)